Breadcrumb Trail Links
Publishing date:
Oct 14, 2022 • 12 hours ago • 4 minute read • 
Danielle Smith called unvaccinated people the most discriminated against group in her lifetime during a news conference on Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022. Photo by Larry Wong /Postmedia
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The arithmetic is look in the mirror news, wake up and smell the coffee news.
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It’s not the kind of news where you run out of the room and yell out to the world: “They love us! They love us! We’re on our way back to the good old days!”
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The good old days being 2019 when the UCP beat the NDP by 22 points.
In the present, there is no political honeymoon for Danielle Smith. None.
No time for a quick tequila in a political Margaritaville.
The UCP Smith now leads does not see any bump in popularity in the polls because she is in and former-premier Jason Kenney is out.
Fresh out of the oven is a nose-count done by Leger.
Everybody knows Leger is one of the best number-crunchers in the country.
This is current math but doesn’t include the effect of Smith stumbling out of the gate on Day 1 and grabbing herself foot-in-mouth headlines she just might like to get back.
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Before the numbers, a quick question.
In these very early innings is the UCP better off with Kenney gone?
The answer of the pollster is No.
But they’re not worse off. That’s as good as it gets for now.
In the horse race, the NDP under Rachel Notley is at 44% among decided voters and the UCP under Danielle Smith is at 42% and the race is pretty well neck and neck in Calgary.
Without the benefit of the poll, Smith is already talking about losing seats in Calgary where the UCP rule the roost almost everywhere.
Yes, the provincial election is this coming May and the UCP did not get an immediate jump in the numbers, as happens more often than not when a new leader takes charge.
You know, the excitement of a fresh start, hitting the reset button, putting the past behind them, turning the page, starting a new chapter.
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There’s often some uptick in party approval, especially when the old leader is damaged goods and chose to exit when barely half his party supported him.
Let’s drill down a little deeper.
You mine a few real nuggets when the nose-counter asks questions like whether Smith will do a better job than Kenney standing up to Ottawa or will change the province’s direction for the better.
Questions like whether Smith will be able to grow the economy or improve the lives of Albertans or put the different factions within the UCP Humpty Dumpty back together again or fix the problems in health care.
For every question but one, those who think Smith will bring positive change is a much smaller group than those who think she will not.
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In no question do Smith’s positives beat Smith’s negatives.
Smith changing the province’s direction for the better. Agree 25%. Disagree 39%.
Smith improving the lives of Albertans. Agree 23%. Disagree 36%.
Smith being able to fix health care, a big-ticket item on her agenda. Agree 20%. Disagree 41%.
Only on whether Smith will do better than Kenney in fighting Ottawa is it even close. Agree 29%. Disagree 32%.
The consolation for Smith is there are lots of folks, in some cases around four in 10 Albertans, who are on the fence, the wait-and-see crowd.
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To the nose-counter, it is clear Smith has not convinced all UCP voters she’s the real deal.
“She has a lot of explaining to do, a lot of convincing to do and do even with her own supporters,” says Leger’s Ian Large.
Smith is clearly less popular than her party.
The really telling math is what decided UCP voters think of Smith.
In all the questions mentioned above there is not one question where half the UCP voters agree she’s up to the task.
Large says Smith has to be humble because she doesn’t have all her people on her side yet. They need to be won over and they can be.
But …
“She has to be Premier Smith,” says the man with the math.
“That’s the one who stays calm, that’s the one who doesn’t say stupid things.”
The advice to the new premier?
“It’s not talk radio. You’re the boss.”
Ouch. It’s true but the truth often hurts.
One more tale of the tape.
Who would be the best premier?
Notley 36%. Smith 22%.
Again one in four are undecided.
Smith has her work cut out for her.
And May 2023 and decision day is not that far off in the distance.
“She doesn’t have time to stumble and then recover. There’s just not enough time,” says Large the pollster.
“The clock is ticking.”
rbell@postmedia.com
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